Wednesday, November 03, 2004

MIDNIGHT ANALYSIS

The polls are closed, the votes are coming in, its very early on E-Day+1 and here's where I think we stand. (All numbers from C-SPAN

President Bush currently has 237 EC votes. With zero precincts reporting I'm ready to call Alaska for Bush. With 63% of precincts reporting in Colorado and the president up 53-45 I'm ready to call that state for him. Alaska and Colorado put the president at 249 votes, which means he needs 21 more to win.

Bush's best bet is to take Ohio (20 votes) and one other state. He's currently leading in New Mexico 51-48 with 71% reporting. I'm just about ready to give him that one.

So, as expected it comes down to Ohio. How does that state look? Not good for Kerry. With 76% of precincts reporting Bush is leading 51.26-48.24 or in actual votes 2,154,140 to 2,027,229. As of this writing and by my count there are 42 counties with incomplete reports. Of those Bush is leading in 27 of them, Kerry is leading in 10, three are too close to call (within 2 percent) and 2 have not reported at all.

By those numbers it looks like Ohio is going to Bush, and that would be the election.

I haven't heard much about any law suits yet, and I'm not quite ready to call the election for Bush, but its going his way.

Posted by Matthew @ 12:28 a.m.