Thursday, October 23, 2003

ELECTION PREDICTION

Colby Cosh is engaged in some electoral predictions, which to my mind is the most dangerous activity a pundit can embark on.

Nevertheless, Cosh looks at possible election outcomes on the basis of the new merger of the conservative parties. His absolute best case scenario involves the new party keeping all of the votes of the two old parties and, for the sake of argument, gaining the votes of the Bloc in Quebec. Even in this case the Liberals would still win a minority government.

When you take into account that many disaffected Tories are likely going to move to the Pual Martin Liberals and that given the sentiment of Quebecers previously disscussed here it seems pretty clear that the Liberals already have the next election wrapped up.

But then again, what did I say about election predictions?

Posted by Matthew @ 1:05 p.m.